Hezbollah

The Hashemite King’s Gambit

For decades, American policymakers have come to view the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan as an indispensable ally in the Middle East, committing billions of taxpayer dollars to support Jordan's budget, economy, and military. Indeed, Jordan's Peace Treaty with Israel; its strategic position between Israel, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia; and its pro-American military and intelligence services remain critical to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
And yet, challenges inside this relationship are reaching alarming levels. From harboring one of the FBI's most wanted terrorists and inciting violence against Israel, to a member of its parliament facing charges for trafficking guns and gold into Israel, Jordan's recent behavior has U.S. policymakers considering their options.
Filling in for host Cliff May is Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD. To discuss U.S.-Jordan relations, he's joined by FDD Senior Vice President for Research Jonathan Schanzer and Joe Truzman, research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal.

Israel’s Little Fires Everywhere

The Islamic Republic of Iran makes no effort to conceal its desire to wipe Israel off the map. Just this week, leaders called for the elimination of two major Israeli cities: Tel Aviv and Haifa. The regime in Tehran deploys a wide range of tools and proxies to achieve this end. The result was a series of low-level conflagrations over the course of the last several weeks, with Iranian proxies routinely attacking Israel both inside and just beyond its borders:
In Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah fired more than forty rockets at Israel.
In Syria, the Iranian regime has deployed Shiite militias and military installations that Israel strikes with regularity.
In the West Bank, longstanding terror groups (and, now, some new ones) continue to attack Israel. The Palestinian Authority has essentially lost control, making the West Bank even more lawless and dangerous. Iran seeks to exploit this chaos.
In Gaza, the Hamas terrorist group routinely fires salvos of rockets into Israel — including about three dozen very recently.
All of this has been happening during the holy month of Ramadan, a period in which every year Iran has worked to stoke tensions and incite violence. This year has been no exception, with rioters at the Temple Mount throwing rocks and shooting fireworks at police.
Little fires everywhere. That’s what the Israeli Defense Forces saw this month. And from all appearances, the IDF has snuffed all of them out.
But there are no permanent victories in the Middle East — only permanent battles.
To discuss, FDD Senior Vice President for Research Jonathan Schanzer (filling in for host Cliff May) is joined by Brigadier General Jacob Nagel. He’s the former acting Israeli National Security Advisor under Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. He’s also a Senior Fellow at FDD.

Tools of Terror: Iran’s Growing Ballistic Missile Threat

The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, and Tehran is working hard to increase its size and quality by pursuing improvements in precision, range, mobility, warhead design, and survivability. That’s one of the conclusions drawn by FDD Senior Fellow and Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu in his major new FDD Monograph, "Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program."
Leveraging an impressive array of English and Persian-language sources, Behnam has produced one of the most comprehensive publicly available assessments to date of Iranian ballistic missile program. In it, he warns that we should expect more missile attacks and transfers from Iran in the future.
In his foreword for the monograph, Vice Admiral (Ret.) James D. Syring, Former Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, writes that Behnam’s “findings and recommendations will stimulate a productive policy discussion regarding the steps Washington must take to counter the rising Iranian ballistic missile threat.”
So, what are the origins of Tehran’s ballistic missile program? How has it evolved? What are its current capabilities? How does the Islamic Republic view and use its missile arsenal? And what should the U.S. and its allies and partners do about it?
To discuss these questions and more, Behnam and Lieutenant General (retired) H.R. McMaster — soldier, former White House National Security Advisor, and Chairman of the Board of Advisors at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power — join CMPP Senior Director and guest host Bradley Bowman.
 
 

Junipers, Oaks, and Killer Tomatoes

The United States and Israel conducted the Juniper Oak 23 multi-domain military exercise in late January. The Pentagon calls it the “largest” and “most significant” bilateral U.S.-Israel exercise in history.
This exercise comes as the Islamic Republic of Iran deepens its relationship with China and Russia, continues to export terrorism, inches toward a nuclear weapon, and expands the missile means to deliver a weapon of mass destruction to its target.
So, what was this military exercise all about? What makes it unique? Why does it matter? What comes next?
Filling in for Cliff May, senior director of FDD's Center on Military and Political Power Bradley Bowman asks Lieutenant General Gregory Guillot.
Lt. Gen. Gregory Guillot is the Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command, which is the Pentagon’s regional combatant command responsible for the Middle East. CENTCOM was established a few years after the  revolution in Iran in 1979 and views deterring Iran as its number one command priority.
Lieutenant General Gregory Guillot
General Guillot received his commission from the U.S. Air Force Academy in 1989 and has commanded a flying squadron, operations group, and two flying wings. Most recently, he served as the commander of the Ninth Air Force (Air Forces Central), Combined Force Air Component Commander within CENTCOM. He’s a senior air battle manager with more than 1,380 flying hours.

From Malmo to Jerusalem

Jonathan Conricus was born in Jerusalem but grew up in Sweden. His family returned to Israel when he was 13 years old. A few years later he joined the Israeli Defense Forces, eventually rising to the rank of lieutenant colonel and serving as the IDF’s international spokesman.
He joins Foreign Podicy host and FDD founder and president Cliff May to discuss his life, career, what it was like dealing with the journalistic herd, and – now that he’s retired from the military – opine on some of the Middle East’s many conflicts and controversies.
Also joining the conversation is Jonathan Schanzer, FDD’s senior vice president for research at FDD whose most recent book, Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War, challenges – and corrects – some of the major media’s inaccurate reporting on that conflict.

The Moment Israel Was Born

Israel is the world’s only Jewish-majority state and the only surviving and thriving Jewish community that remains in the Middle East.
Despite that — or, maybe, because of that — Israel has many enemies.
 You may think you know how this unique nation-state was born, but history, like science, is never settled. 
Jeffrey Herf, a Distinguished University Professor of Modern European History at the University of Maryland, has cast a fresh and scholarly eye on Israel’s origins, and turned his research into a new book: “Israel’s Moment: International Support for and Opposition to Establishing the Jewish State, 1945 – 1949.”  
Today, he joins host Cliff May in FDD’s studio along with Jonathan Schanzer, FDD’s senior vice president who reviewed Professor Herf’s book for the Jerusalem Post.

The modern Middle East’s most accomplished dictator

Since 1989, Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
He has outlasted and outplayed everyone else within the first revolutionary generation. His men now control all the critical institutions in the state. He out-negotiated the United States and western Europe in nuclear talks despite severe sanctions. He has pushed Iran's atomic program ever closer to a bomb. He defeated the United States in Iraq.
And, as has become even more obvious as the Iranian people repeatedly rise up in nationwide protests against the theocracy, he has also pushed Iranian society to a breaking point.
Filling in for host Cliff May is FDD senior fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht, and he's joined by Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations to discuss "the most accomplished — and, perhaps, most consequential — dictator in the middle east since World War II, Ali Khamenei."

Connecting the Dots from Tehran to Gaza

Israel’s latest armed conflict was with a group that calls itself Islamic Jihad, or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or PIJ.
It’s supported, armed, and trained by the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
To learn more about this American-designated terrorist organization, how badly it was set back by the missiles of August, and what Iran’s rulers might do to build it back better, host Cliff May is joined by FDD Chief Executive Mark Dubowitz, who was in Israel during the three-day battle, and by FDD Senior Vice President for Research Jonathan Schanzer. Jon, who is also the author of Gaza Conflict 2021: Israel, Hamas, and Eleven Days of War, closely followed reporting on the fighting in English, Hebrew, and Arabic.

Deal or No Deal: Confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran the Reagan Way

FDD experts have worked for more than a decade on the threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As part of a multi-pronged strategy, FDD has shared nonpartisan research and analyses with policymakers, lawmakers, and the business community.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is slated to hold its first public hearing on the theocratic regime in more than two years with administration officials and top experts, and they have invited FDD’s Mark Dubowitz – who founded our Iran program – to testify as an expert witness.
He joins Foreign Podicy host Cliff May — along with FDD’s Rich Goldberg, who recently served on the National Security Council as the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction; and FDD’s Toby Dershowitz who has played a significant role in shaping and messaging policies to counter the threats from Tehran — to discuss the impending Iran nuclear deal.

An Israel Briefing

Russia ravages Ukraine. China eyes Taiwan. North Korea prepares a nuclear test. And negotiations for a new — and worse — iteration of President Obama’s deeply-flawed Iran nuclear deal remain on life-support.  
The rules-based, American-led order is hanging in the balance — and although they weren’t granted a seat at the negotiating table, Israel currently faces a unique threat with a build-up of Iranian weapons at almost each of its borders.
Unlike with the Americans at the negotiating table, the theocratic regime in Tehran doesn’t want Israelis to submit — they want Israelis to perish. And also unlike the U.S., Israel takes this existential threat both literally and seriously.  
Inside its borders, meanwhile, there’s been new wave of terrorist attacks in recent weeks as tensions in Jerusalem again approach boiling.
All this as we reach the one-year mark since the Gaza conflict of 2021.
Filling in for host Cliff May, FDD Senior Vice President for Research Jonathan Schanzer (who literally wrote the book on last year’s conflict) is joined by Brigadier General Jacob Nagel — a Senior Fellow at FDD and former acting Israeli National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu (and who also contributed to the Hebrew edition of Jon’s book) — to discuss these and related issues.

Willful Blindness: Revisiting the 2021 Gaza War

In 2005, Israelis withdrew from Gaza – every soldier, every farmer, every synagogue, every grave. It was an historic land-for-peace experiment – and it failed.
In May, Hamas began firing missiles at Israeli cities, towns, and villages, sparking the fourth intense armed conflict since Hamas defeated Fatah and began ruling Gaza.
Many in the international media blamed Israel more than Hamas – despite the fact that it was Hamas that attacked; despite the fact that Hamas used human shields, a clear violation of international and U.S. law; despite the fact that Hamas’ intentions toward Israelis are openly and unambiguously genocidal.
Jonathan Schanzer, FDD’s senior vice president for research, a ground-breaking scholar of Middle Eastern affairs, has now produced the first and, so far, only book on this conflagration: Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War.
Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus served as the international spokesman for the Israeli Defense Forces during the fighting. Both join Foreign Podicy host Cliff May to discuss why Hamas fights and how Israel defends itself.

Israel’s Shield in the Sky

In May, Hamas leaders in Gaza — a territory from which Israelis withdrew in 2005 — launched more than 4,000 missiles at Israel, sparking an eleven-day conflict that would have been bloodier — on both sides — had the Israelis not been in possession of the Iron Dome, a marvel of engineering that intercepts and destroys short-range missiles before they can reach their intended victims. In other words, it is not a sword but a shield.
Last month, far-left House Democrats blocked a bill to keep the federal government operating until it was stripped of funds to help Israelis replenish interceptors for the Iron Dome.
A few days later, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer brought Iron Dome up as a stand-alone bill. There were 420 votes in favor and nine opposed.
To discuss these and related issues, Foreign Podicy host Cliff May is joined by Jacob Nagel, who has served in the Israeli Defense Forces, the Israeli Defense Ministry, and the Prime Minister’s Office including as the head of Israel’s National Security Council and acting National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
He headed the “Nagel Committee,” which was responsible for Israel’s decision to develop Iron Dome. He also led the negotiations and signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for U.S. military aid to Israel from 2018 to 2027. He’s currently a visiting professor at the Technion Aerospace Engineering Faculty and a senior fellow at FDD.
Also joining the conversation: Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program as well as FDD’s National Security Network; and Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power.
Before joining FDD, Enia's work focused on strengthening U.S.-Israel relations including at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC); the Israel Allies Foundation; and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, where she served as a Middle East fellow.
Brad has served as a national security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Prior to that, he was an active-duty U.S. Army officer, Black Hawk pilot, and assistant professor at West Point.

The UN’s Strange Obsession with Israel

An extraordinary number of organizations within the UN system spend most of their time, money, and energy demonizing and attempting to de-legitimize Israel — and claiming to defend Palestinians. 
Joining Foreign Podicy host Cliff May to talk about UNIFIL, UNRWA, the UNHRC, and several other organizations specifically committed to what is commonly – though perhaps not accurately – called the “Palestinian cause” are FDD research fellow Tony Badran; FDD research analyst David May; and Richard Goldberg senior advisor at FDD, and editor of a recently published FDD monograph, “A Better Blueprint for International Organizations,” to which all three contributed and which Rich edited.

Israel, Post-Bibi

For the past 12 years, Benjamin Netanyahu served as Israel’s prime minister, fighting wars and wars-between-wars against Hamas and Hezbollah; opposing President Obama’s attempts to propitiate Iran’s rulers who openly threaten Israelis with genocide; attempting to block blows from the United Nations, an organization that spends inordinate amounts of time and money slandering Israelis; engaging in palavers with Vladimir Putin who has now re-established Russia as a power in the Middle East; not convincing Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to seriously negotiate with him; yet managing to establish Israeli diplomatic relations with a growing number of nations – including, under the Abraham Accords, Arab nations.
Netanyahu has now been replaced by a diverse coalition of his opponents – on both the right and the left and including an Arab/Muslim party.
How will the new gang cope with Israel’s multiple threats and challenges?
FDD senior vice president Jonathan Schanzer has just returned from the Holy Land. He joins Foreign Podicy host Cliff May for a wide-ranging discussion.

Raisi Rising

An election – of sorts – was held in the Islamic Republic of Iran last week. The victor: Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline theocrat who has been sanctioned by the US for his involvement in the mass execution of political prisoners.
Voter turnout was reportedly low.
To discuss these developments, and how the Biden administration – among others – may respond, host Cliff May is joined by Ray Takeyh, formerly a senior advisor on Iran at the Department of State, currently a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Reuel Marc Gerecht, formerly a Middle Eastern specialist at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, currently a senior fellow at FDD; and Benham Ben Taleblu, also a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues.

Biden’s Mission to Realign the Middle East

President Biden has been eager to rejoin the deal that President Obama concluded with Iran’s rulers in 2015 and from which President Trump withdrew three years later.
The quarrel between advocates for, and critics of, the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been viewed as a disagreement over how best to prevent the theocrats in Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.
Michael Doran, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies dissent from that view. In Tablet, they’ve written a comprehensive analysis arguing that Mr. Biden intends to both enrich and empower Iran’s rulers – while simultaneously downgrading relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states, Israel, and other former friends (read their article here).
In other words, President Biden is attempting to establish a “new Middle Eastern order” — one that regards the Islamic Republic of Iran as America’s primary strategic partner in the region. They conclude also that President Biden has decided not to speak candidly about this dramatic change – which they call “The Realignment.”
As for latest kinetic battle between Israel and Hamas, they see that as an inevitable consequence of the Biden tilt toward Tehran. They discuss all this and more with Foreign Podicy host Cliff May.

The Thin Red Line: Joby Warrick on the U.S. Response to this Century’s Worst War Crimes

Joby Warrick is a distinguished journalist, a longtime Washington Post national security reporter, and a Pulitzer Prize-winner. His latest book is: “Red Line: The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World.”
To discuss Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons to mass murder his fellow Syrians, and what the U.S. did – and did not – do about it, he joins David Adesnik, FDD’s Director of Research and senior fellow on Syria, and FDDs president and Foreign Podicy host Cliff May.

Iran’s Road from Monarchy to Islamist Theocracy and Empire

February 11, 2021 is the forty-second anniversary of the revolution that transformed Iran from a Western-aligned monarchy to an anti-Western Islamist theocracy.
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, one of America’s leading analysts of contemporary Iran, and the author of a new book: “The Last Shah: America, Iran and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty.”
Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at FDD, a former officer in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, and also an expert on Iran — both contemporary and ancient.
Both join host Cliff May to discuss the Revolution.

The U.S. Military’s Southern Exposure: Trouble in the Neighborhood

The U.S. Southern Command, SOUTHCOM, is one of six geographic combatant commands. It’s responsible for planning, operations and security cooperation in Central America, South America, and most of the Caribbean.
It’s a joint command including military and civilian personnel from the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, the Marine Corps, the Coast Guard, and several federal agencies.  Its mission is to deter aggressors, defeat threats, respond to crises, and work with allied and partner nations to defend the U.S. homeland and America’s national interests.
The SOUTHCOM Commander, Admiral Craig S. Faller, is a Naval Academy graduate who served as Commander of the John C. Stennis Strike Group / Carrier Strike Group 3 in support of Operations New Dawn (in Iraq) and Enduring Freedom (in Afghanistan).  He has also served as the Director of Operations (J3) in U.S. Central Command, and as the Chief of Navy Legislative Affairs, which is where he worked with Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP).  
Both join FDD Foreign Podicy host Cliff May for a discussion of the challenges and threats posed by America’s enemies and adversaries in this vital region.

War and Peace, and Wars Between Wars

In the past — at least in the past as we like to remember it — wars began with declarations and ended with surrenders or negotiated “peace agreements.”
In the real world — most emphatically in the real world of the 21st century — there are wars, and there are wars between wars.
Jacob Nagel, a senior fellow at FDD, served as head of Israel’s National Security Council. Before that, he served in the Israel Defense Forces, rising to the rank of brigadier general.
Bradley Bowman is senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). He has served as a national security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. He was also a U.S. Army officer, “Blackhawk” pilot, and assistant professor at West Point, from which he also graduated.
They join host Clifford D. May to discuss issues of war and peace — and the grey zone in between.
 
Subscribe to FDD's Foreign Podicy here on Apple Podcasts and anywhere else you enjoy listening to podcasts.
 
More from Cliff: https://www.fdd.org/team/clifford-d-may/ 
More from Jacob: https://www.fdd.org/team/jacob-nagel/ 
More from Brad: https://www.fdd.org/team/bradley-bowman/ 
More from FDD's Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP): https://www.fdd.org/projects/center-on-military-and-political-power/ 

Sharpening the Iran File ft. Richard Goldberg (part one)

The deal President Obama cut with Iran's rulers provided them with billions of dollars and a "patient pathway" to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to targets anywhere on the planet.
President Trump withdrew from that deal and, in its place, initiated a "maximum pressure" campaign of economic sanctions intended to change the regime's behavior — if not change the regime itself.
Richard Goldberg, who recently served as a director on the National Security Council (NSC) and is now back at FDD as a senior advisor, joins host Cliff May to discuss what the Trump administration's policies and strategies on Iran have — and have not — achieved so far.

Deal or No Deal

Following a lengthy period of incubation, President Trump has unveiled a plan intended to resolve the long-running Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Whether it can achieve that — whether such a goal is achievable any time soon — is worth an in-depth discussion. There’s no one better to have that conversation with than Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at FDD, who has written extensively on Palestinian politics and related topics.

Saeed Ghasseminejad’s Iranian-American Journey

Growing up in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Saeed Ghasseminejad’s parents hoped he’d become a scientist or perhaps an engineer... anything but what he actually became: a dissident and a freedom fighter.
But he couldn’t remain silent about the theocratic oppression in his native land.
He ended up in Iran’s infamous Evin prison, his sentence handed down by none other than Abolghassem Salavati, otherwise known as the “Hanging Judge” who was recently designated by the United States for his decades of human rights abuses. After that, he went into exile abroad.
Today, as FDD’s senior advisor on Iran and Financial Economics, he’s responsible for granular research and incisive analysis, and his insights and recommendations are heard at the highest levels of the U.S. government.

Nukes for the Ayatollah

The acquisition of nuclear weapons has long been a central goal of Iran’s revolutionary Islamist rulers.
President Obama concluded a deal to delay that eventuality. His claim that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action would stop Iran’s supreme leader from achieving this capability was never justified.
President Trump withdrew from the unsigned JCPOA, and has been waging what he calls a “maximum pressure” campaign to prevent the theocrats from achieving their goal. They’ve not given up yet – nor have they agreed to new negotiations.
Joining Foreign Podicy host and FDD president Cliff May to discuss the current state of nuclear play are Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at FDD and an established expert on nuclear weapons proliferation and illicit procurement networks; and Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues.

Israel and the Fire Next Time

Israel is not always fighting a war but neither is it ever entirely at peace.
Most recently, a battle was fought in Gaza against Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a terrorist group supported and instructed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Soon after, Israel hit threatening Iranian military installations in Syria.
To discuss Israel’s strategy for the battles and wars, present and future, Foreign Podicy host and FDD president Cliff May is joined by Gen. Jacob Nagel, a visiting fellow at FDD and a visiting professor at the Technion Aerospace Engineering Facility. In 2016 – 17, Gen. Nagel served as head of Israel’s National Security Council, and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s National Security Advisor. He also headed the “Nagel Committee” which was responsible for Israel’s decision to develop the Iron Dome missile defense system.
Also joining the discussion is Jonathan Schanzer, FDD’s senior vice president for research who has written extensively about the Middle East in general and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in particular.