Iran nuclear

Raisi Rising

An election – of sorts – was held in the Islamic Republic of Iran last week. The victor: Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline theocrat who has been sanctioned by the US for his involvement in the mass execution of political prisoners.
Voter turnout was reportedly low.
To discuss these developments, and how the Biden administration – among others – may respond, host Cliff May is joined by Ray Takeyh, formerly a senior advisor on Iran at the Department of State, currently a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Reuel Marc Gerecht, formerly a Middle Eastern specialist at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, currently a senior fellow at FDD; and Benham Ben Taleblu, also a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues.

Tehran’s Nuclear Secrets

David Albright is a physicist, a former nuclear inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency, an expert on nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation, and the founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security – also known as “the Good ISIS.”
His important new book, written with Sarah Burkhard: “Iran’s Perilous Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons.”
It’s based on the secret archive of the nuclear weapons program of the Islamic Republic. Israeli spies located that archive in a warehouse in Tehran, and spirited much of it out of the country.
What David Albright reveals is alarming and should have a significant impact on the policies of the Biden administration vis-à-vis Iran’s rulers.
He joins host Cliff May and Andrea Stricker, who worked at the Good ISIS for 12 years, and is now a fellow at FDD where she conducts research on nuclear weapons proliferation and illicit procurement networks.

Biden’s Mission to Realign the Middle East

President Biden has been eager to rejoin the deal that President Obama concluded with Iran’s rulers in 2015 and from which President Trump withdrew three years later.
The quarrel between advocates for, and critics of, the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been viewed as a disagreement over how best to prevent the theocrats in Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.
Michael Doran, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies dissent from that view. In Tablet, they’ve written a comprehensive analysis arguing that Mr. Biden intends to both enrich and empower Iran’s rulers – while simultaneously downgrading relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states, Israel, and other former friends (read their article here).
In other words, President Biden is attempting to establish a “new Middle Eastern order” — one that regards the Islamic Republic of Iran as America’s primary strategic partner in the region. They conclude also that President Biden has decided not to speak candidly about this dramatic change – which they call “The Realignment.”
As for latest kinetic battle between Israel and Hamas, they see that as an inevitable consequence of the Biden tilt toward Tehran. They discuss all this and more with Foreign Podicy host Cliff May.

Beijing, the WHO, and the Pandemic

In January, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the World Health Organization to fully investigate the possibility that the COVID-19 virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. He cited new U.S. intelligence that raises troubling questions. But China’s rulers have not been forthcoming.
Is the World Health Organization making a serious attempt to get at the truth? If not, what can and should be done? Those are just some of the issues Foreign Podicy host Cliff May explores with Anthony Ruggiero and Craig Singleton.
Anthony is a senior fellow at FDD. He has more than 19 years of government experience in both Republican and Democratic administrations. Most recently he served as Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and National Security Council Senior Director for Counterproliferation and Biodefense.
Craig is an adjunct fellow at FDD. He previously spent more than a decade serving in a series of sensitive national security roles including overseas assignments at the U.S. embassies in Baghdad, Caracas, and Mexico City.

The UN and the Illiberal International Order

With the defeat of the Axis Powers in 1945, the United States emerged as the strongest nation on earth. But rather than emulate hegemons of the past, American leaders envisioned a new and different world order.
Their goal was to organize an "international community," establish "universal human rights," and a growing body of "international law."
This project required new institutions, in particular the United Nations.
Three quarters of a century later, it requires willful blindness not to see that the UN and many other international organizations have become bloated and corrupt bureaucracies, increasingly serving the interests of despots.
To discuss what’s gone wrong and what might be done to prevent the UN and other international organizations from drifting further into the clutches of authoritarians host Clifford D. May is joined by Richard Goldberg, Orde Kittrie, and Emma Reilly.
Rich Goldberg is a Senior Advisor at FDD. Among his many government positions, Rich previously served as the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction for the National Security Council, and Deputy Chief of Staff and Senior Foreign Policy Adviser to former Mark Kirk, both when Kirk was in the House and then the Senate. Rich is also an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserve. We thank him for his service.
Also joining is Orde Kittrie. He, too, is a Senior Fellow at FDD as well as a professor of law. He is a leading expert on nonproliferation law and policy, and an expert on international law, particularly as it relates to the Middle East. On lawfare, well, he wrote the book. Its title: Lawfare: Law as a Weapon of War. Orde served for over a decade in various legal and policy positions at the U.S. State Department. He was a lead US negotiator at the UN for the treaty on the suppression of acts of nuclear terrorism and participated in drafting several UN Security Council resolutions.
Joining, too, is Emma Reilly who has worked in the field of human rights for almost 20 years. She joined the UN Human Rights Office in 2012. In 2013, she blew the whistle on an exceptional and dangerous policy: UN bureaucrats giving to the Chinese government the names of dissidents, including US citizens, who planned to engage UN human rights mechanisms. The bureaucracy’s response: To not fix the problem and to attempt to fire her instead.
All three join host Cliff May for this episode to discuss what happened and what, if anything, can be done moving forward to combat this high level of corruption.

Iran’s Road from Monarchy to Islamist Theocracy and Empire

February 11, 2021 is the forty-second anniversary of the revolution that transformed Iran from a Western-aligned monarchy to an anti-Western Islamist theocracy.
Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, one of America’s leading analysts of contemporary Iran, and the author of a new book: “The Last Shah: America, Iran and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty.”
Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at FDD, a former officer in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, and also an expert on Iran — both contemporary and ancient.
Both join host Cliff May to discuss the Revolution.

Thinking Bigly at Foggy Bottom

Starting in 2019, and until the recent change of administration, Peter Berkowitz served as director of Policy Planning at the State Department. That’s the government ideas shop that George Kennan established in 1947.
Dr. Berkowitz was an unusual choice for this job in that his background is scholarly rather than governmental. He holds a doctorate in political science and a law degree, both from Yale University.
He was, and now continues, as the Tad and Dianne Taube Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, where he studies, thinks, and writes about the principles of freedom, the American constitutional tradition, political ideas and ideologies, national security, Middle Eastern politics – pretty much anything he likes.
Having emerged from Foggy Bottom, he joins host Cliff May to discuss his adventures in government and the issues he grappled with while there.

Arms Control and the Man

Marshall Billingslea has worked on a range of significant and difficult national security issues.
He served as Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing at the Treasury Department, president of the international Financial Action Task Force, Deputy Under Secretary of the Navy, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Negotiations Policy. He’s also been an Assistant Secretary General at NATO.
Last April, he was appointed Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control with the personal rank of ambassador — a challenging portfolio over the months that have followed.
To find out more, he joins Cliff May and Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power, for a discussion on the latest national security issues.

The Powers that Should Be

Robert Gates served as secretary of defense under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He also has served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a member of the National Security Council in four administrations. In all, he worked for eight presidents of both political parties. And he served in uniform, in the US Air Force, something we at Foreign Podicy consider always worthy of note and praise. He’s written a new book: Exercise of Power: American Failures, Successes, and a New Path Forward in the Post-Cold War World.
Eric Edelman has served in senior positions in the both the State and Defense Departments. He was the US ambassador to Finland and Turkey in the Clinton and Bush administrations. He retired from the Foreign Service as a career minister. He’s now a senior advisor for FDD.
Both join host Cliff May to discuss a range of national security and defense issues.

The Rise of the Illiberal World Order

In theory, the United Nations and other international organizations express the will of something called “the international community,” while enforcing something called the “liberal international rules-based order.”
In practice, the UN and other international organizations now pursue different agendas.
John Bolton served as National Security Advisor under President Trump, as U.S. ambassador to the UN under President George W. Bush, and in senior positions under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
He has long been concerned that the UN and other international organizations are drifting – or being pushed – and what such transformations portend for the United States and other free nations.
Richard Goldberg is a former director on the National Security Council. He also served as a foreign policy advisor in both the House and Senate. He is now a senior advisor at FDD.
Both join Cliff to discuss what’s become of the modern experiment in internationalism.

The U.S. Military’s Southern Exposure: Trouble in the Neighborhood

The U.S. Southern Command, SOUTHCOM, is one of six geographic combatant commands. It’s responsible for planning, operations and security cooperation in Central America, South America, and most of the Caribbean.
It’s a joint command including military and civilian personnel from the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, the Marine Corps, the Coast Guard, and several federal agencies.  Its mission is to deter aggressors, defeat threats, respond to crises, and work with allied and partner nations to defend the U.S. homeland and America’s national interests.
The SOUTHCOM Commander, Admiral Craig S. Faller, is a Naval Academy graduate who served as Commander of the John C. Stennis Strike Group / Carrier Strike Group 3 in support of Operations New Dawn (in Iraq) and Enduring Freedom (in Afghanistan).  He has also served as the Director of Operations (J3) in U.S. Central Command, and as the Chief of Navy Legislative Affairs, which is where he worked with Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP).  
Both join FDD Foreign Podicy host Cliff May for a discussion of the challenges and threats posed by America’s enemies and adversaries in this vital region.

H.R. McMaster and the Fight to Defend the Free World

LTG (Ret.) H.R. McMaster is a soldier, scholar and strategist. A graduate of West Point, he served in the U.S. Army for 34 years, earning a doctorate in history along the way, and retiring as a Lieutenant General. From February 2017 until April 2018, he was President Trump's National Security Advisor. He's currently the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and he's also the chairman of the advisory board of FDD's Center on Military and Political Power.
He's just published a new book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. He joins Cliff to discuss his time as the U.S. National Security Advisor, his assessment of the latest international security issues ranging from China and Russia to Afghanistan, and his book — including what he hopes the next U.S. administration can gain from it.

The Iraq-Iran War: An Unhappy 40th Anniversary

On September 22, 1980, Iraq and Iran went to war. The conflict dragged on for eight long years, taking an estimated half million lives. When it was over, both countries and the Middle East had been profoundly changed.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at FDD — also a native Farsi speaker who has been intensively studying the region for years — talks with host Cliff May about this not-so-well-remembered war, and its significant fallout.
For additional background reading, read Behnam's latest article, "Why The Iran-Iraq War Matters For The Success Of Maximum Pressure," here.

Our Man in Geneva: The UN is bigger – but not better – than you think.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in New York is often a high-profile figure. Think of Nikki Haley, John Bolton, Jeane Kirkpatrick — or, going back further, Adlai Stevenson, Arthur Goldberg, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and Andrew Young.
American ambassadors to the United Nations in Geneva – where there also are dozens of UN-affiliated international organizations – tend to be less well-known, but they have important work they can do – if they want to.
Ambassador Andrew Bremberg has been in that job for about a year, and he joins host Cliff May to discuss what he’s seen and done, and what the UN is and isn’t doing. Also contributing to the conversation is Richard Goldberg, a former White House National Security Council official who spent a decade on Capitol Hill overseeing U.S. foreign assistance. Rich now serves as a senior advisor at FDD and leads FDD’s International Organizations Program.

Pivoting Toward China

In 1972, Nixon went to China, where he met with Communist leader Mao Zedong.
Thanks to that bold diplomatic initiative, the United States and the People’s Republic learned to peacefully co-exist, living happily ever after.
Well, not exactly.
What Nixon called “the week that changed the world” helped China become wealthier and more powerful, but Beijing did not become America’s strategic partner — or a reliable stakeholder — in what we like to think of as the liberal, international, rules-based order.
To discuss what China’s rulers have been doing, are doing, and intend to do, host Cliff May is joined by two scholars new to FDD.
Nathan Picarsic, a senior fellow at FDD, studies Beijing’s military-civil fusion strategy, and its competitive approach to geopolitics.
Emily de La Bruyère, also a senior fellow, has pioneered novel data collection and analysis tools tailored to Beijing’s strategic and institutional structures. She uses primary-source, Chinese-language materials to provide insight on geopolitical, technological, and economic change.

National Security Council for Dummies ft. Richard Goldberg (part two)

Richard Goldberg just finished a year on the National Security Council (NSC) where he served as the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Now back at FDD as a senior advisor, he’s going to explain to host Cliff May and Foreign Podicy listeners how the NSC operates; its relationship with other government departments; how it makes policies and attempts to have those policies implemented; what it’s doing and what it’s managed to get done during President Trump’s first three years in office.

War and Peace, and Wars Between Wars

In the past — at least in the past as we like to remember it — wars began with declarations and ended with surrenders or negotiated “peace agreements.”
In the real world — most emphatically in the real world of the 21st century — there are wars, and there are wars between wars.
Jacob Nagel, a senior fellow at FDD, served as head of Israel’s National Security Council. Before that, he served in the Israel Defense Forces, rising to the rank of brigadier general.
Bradley Bowman is senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). He has served as a national security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. He was also a U.S. Army officer, “Blackhawk” pilot, and assistant professor at West Point, from which he also graduated.
They join host Clifford D. May to discuss issues of war and peace — and the grey zone in between.
 
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More from Cliff: https://www.fdd.org/team/clifford-d-may/ 
More from Jacob: https://www.fdd.org/team/jacob-nagel/ 
More from Brad: https://www.fdd.org/team/bradley-bowman/ 
More from FDD's Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP): https://www.fdd.org/projects/center-on-military-and-political-power/ 

Sharpening the Iran File ft. Richard Goldberg (part one)

The deal President Obama cut with Iran's rulers provided them with billions of dollars and a "patient pathway" to the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to targets anywhere on the planet.
President Trump withdrew from that deal and, in its place, initiated a "maximum pressure" campaign of economic sanctions intended to change the regime's behavior — if not change the regime itself.
Richard Goldberg, who recently served as a director on the National Security Council (NSC) and is now back at FDD as a senior advisor, joins host Cliff May to discuss what the Trump administration's policies and strategies on Iran have — and have not — achieved so far.

Deal or No Deal

Following a lengthy period of incubation, President Trump has unveiled a plan intended to resolve the long-running Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Whether it can achieve that — whether such a goal is achievable any time soon — is worth an in-depth discussion. There’s no one better to have that conversation with than Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at FDD, who has written extensively on Palestinian politics and related topics.

Saeed Ghasseminejad’s Iranian-American Journey

Growing up in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Saeed Ghasseminejad’s parents hoped he’d become a scientist or perhaps an engineer... anything but what he actually became: a dissident and a freedom fighter.
But he couldn’t remain silent about the theocratic oppression in his native land.
He ended up in Iran’s infamous Evin prison, his sentence handed down by none other than Abolghassem Salavati, otherwise known as the “Hanging Judge” who was recently designated by the United States for his decades of human rights abuses. After that, he went into exile abroad.
Today, as FDD’s senior advisor on Iran and Financial Economics, he’s responsible for granular research and incisive analysis, and his insights and recommendations are heard at the highest levels of the U.S. government.

Nukes for the Ayatollah

The acquisition of nuclear weapons has long been a central goal of Iran’s revolutionary Islamist rulers.
President Obama concluded a deal to delay that eventuality. His claim that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action would stop Iran’s supreme leader from achieving this capability was never justified.
President Trump withdrew from the unsigned JCPOA, and has been waging what he calls a “maximum pressure” campaign to prevent the theocrats from achieving their goal. They’ve not given up yet – nor have they agreed to new negotiations.
Joining Foreign Podicy host and FDD president Cliff May to discuss the current state of nuclear play are Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at FDD and an established expert on nuclear weapons proliferation and illicit procurement networks; and Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at FDD where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues.

Special Edition: Defense Dialogue

The threats facing the United States and its allies are not static. They grow. They transform. America’s defense strategies and defense budgets need to respond with creativity and muscularity.
In November, the U.S. Congress employed a legislative tool known as a Continuing Resolution (CR) to provide temporary funding for the U.S. Military. Now, in December, there is another funding deadline looming. But this kind of uncertainty puts America’s national security and our military personnel at heightened and unnecessary risk.
The day the CR expired, FDD’s Brad Bowman discussed these and related issues with Congressman Jim Banks of Indiana. Representative Banks, a member of the House Armed Services and Veterans Affairs Committees, is himself a veteran who deployed to Afghanistan in 2014 and 2015 — experience that gives him an especially informed voice. Brad serves as Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power. Brad previously worked as a senior director in the U.S. Senate, as well as an army officer, pilot, and assistant professor at West Point.

Fraternal Islamists: Getting to Know the Muslim Brotherhood

For 1,300 years, there were caliphs — “successors” to the Prophet Muhammad. In 1924, however, the last caliph, Abdulmecid II was sent into exile by Mustafa Kemal — Ataturk, father of the secular Republic of Turkey.
In Egypt, four years later, Hassan al-Banna founded the Muslim Brotherhood – an organization dedicated to reviving the caliphate, and uniting Muslims around the world.
In its motto, the Brotherhood declares: “The Quran is our law; Jihad is our way; dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope.”
What’s the state of the Muslim Brotherhood today? How serious a threat does it represent? And what should be done about it?
To find and discuss the answers, host Cliff May is joined by Samuel Tadros, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom, and Jonathan Schanzer, FDD’s senior vice president for research.

Israelis stay the course

In the Middle East, elections are few, far between and rarely free and fair – except in Israel. After a tight, tough race, Benjamin Netanyahu has again been chosen by Israelis, positioning him to become Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. FDD senior vice president Jonathan Schanzer was on the ground during the final days of the campaign. He joins host Cliff May to discuss the outcome and what lies ahead for Israel and the Middle East. 

Israel on the Brink, As Usual

Israeli elections are approaching, President Trump’s envoys are working on a new plan aimed at resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran continue to threaten the Jewish state with annihilation.
To help make sense of these complex challenges, host Cliff May is joined by former Ambassador Daniel Shapiro and FDD Senior Vice President and expert on Palestinian politics Jonathan Schanzer. Prior toserving as U.S. envoy to Israel under President Obama from 2011 to 2017, Ambassador Shapiro worked on both the Hill and the National Security Council. He is currently a distinguished visiting fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.