Foreign policy

Bank Shot

The Inter-American Development Bank, the IDB, says its mission is to “improve lives in Latin America and the Caribbean,” support countries “working to reduce poverty and inequality,” and “achieve development in a sustainable, climate-friendly way.”
For the past two years, for the first time in its 62-year history, the IDB has had an American president: Mauricio Claver-Carone. His goals have included implementing policies beneficial to the United States and countering Beijing’s push for influence and privileges at the bank.
He also ended the practice of Latin American governments using the IDB for patronage jobs – a place to park cronies and politically connected but mediocre economists including those from the region’s socialist and anti-American countries.
His reward: He’s been fired — by the Biden administration. China’s rulers and the leftist regimes of Latin America are undoubtedly celebrating.
Mr. Claver-Carone joins host Cliff May to tell his story and discuss what he thinks is happening at the IDB.
More on FDD.org: https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/2022/10/07/bank-shot/ 

The modern Middle East’s most accomplished dictator

Since 1989, Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
He has outlasted and outplayed everyone else within the first revolutionary generation. His men now control all the critical institutions in the state. He out-negotiated the United States and western Europe in nuclear talks despite severe sanctions. He has pushed Iran's atomic program ever closer to a bomb. He defeated the United States in Iraq.
And, as has become even more obvious as the Iranian people repeatedly rise up in nationwide protests against the theocracy, he has also pushed Iranian society to a breaking point.
Filling in for host Cliff May is FDD senior fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht, and he's joined by Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations to discuss "the most accomplished — and, perhaps, most consequential — dictator in the middle east since World War II, Ali Khamenei."

Words and Actions in the Taiwan Strait

Washington and Beijing are engaged in an increasingly intense contest spanning nearly all domains of power — and the stakes could not be higher. It’s a competition between the world’s leading constitutional democracy and the world’s leading authoritarian power. While this contest between the U.S. and China is a global one, it’s most acute in Taiwan where the free people there are confronting the very real prospect of military aggression by the Chinese Communist Party. Indeed, if there is to be a war between the United States and China, many expect that it would begin in the Taiwan Strait.
To help illustrate why Taiwan matters and exactly what steps the U.S. must take to defend Taipei and counter Beijing, guest host Bradley Bowman — senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power — is joined by top experts RADM (Ret) Mark Montgomery and Elbridge Colby.
RADM (Ret) Mark Montgomery is the senior director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation. After his 32 years in the U.S. Navy as a nuclear-trained surface warfare officer, Mark served as the policy director for the Senate Armed Services Committee under the leadership of Senator John McCain and later as the executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission.
Elbridge Colby is the Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, and he spearheaded the development of the 2018 National Defense Strategy. His recent book “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict” extensively and expertly details the China threat — and what the U.S. response should be.

Mother Russia’s Children

Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington. He’s an expert on regional security in Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. He’s consulted for the U.S. Departments of State and Defense, and for the intelligence community. He’s the author of quite a few books, most recently: Wars of Ideas: Theology, Interpretation and Power in the Muslim World.
He joins host Cliff May to talk about the death of Mikhael Gorbachev, the status of Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, and an incisive scholarly article he recently wrote: “The Sources Of Russian Conduct.”

Michael Gordon’s Wars

Host Cliff May says Wall Street Journal‘s Michael Gordon is, “without a doubt, one of the best reporters I’ve ever known — and I’ve known many reporters over many years.”
Decades ago, they sat in the same bullpen at The New York Times’ Washington bureau, where Cliff says Michael, “covered defense, national security, and international affairs better than anyone else in town.”
Michael has reported on numerous conflicts, both from inside Washington where the decisions are made and from the battlegrounds where the blood is spilled.
He has served as a Times bureau chief in Moscow, and as a roving correspondent based in London. He’s currently a national security correspondent for the Wall Street Journal.
A few years ago, he was Writer-in-Residence at FDD where he worked on his most recent book: Degrade and Destroy: The Inside Story of the War Against the Islamic State, From Barack Obama to Donald Trump.In this episode, Michael joins Cliff for a discussion on America’s fight against the Islamic State.

After the Fall: Lessons Learned and Unlearned in Afghanistan

One year ago, the U.S. military, under orders from the White House, allowed the Taliban to re-take control of Afghanistan.
The withdrawal was poorly planned. The evacuation of Americans and American allies was chaotic and, for some — including 13 American service members — fatal.
One year later, what’s the status of Afghanistan? What’s the status of the Taliban’s ally, al Qaeda? What lessons have we learned? What lessons have we not learned?
Joining host Cliff May to discuss: LTG (Ret.) H.R. McMaster, former White House National Security Advisor who now serves as Chairman of the Board of Advisors at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP); Bradley Bowman, senior director of FDD's CMPP; and Bill Roggio, FDD senior fellow and editor of FDD’s Long War Journal.
 

Connecting the Dots from Tehran to Gaza

Israel’s latest armed conflict was with a group that calls itself Islamic Jihad, or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or PIJ.
It’s supported, armed, and trained by the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
To learn more about this American-designated terrorist organization, how badly it was set back by the missiles of August, and what Iran’s rulers might do to build it back better, host Cliff May is joined by FDD Chief Executive Mark Dubowitz, who was in Israel during the three-day battle, and by FDD Senior Vice President for Research Jonathan Schanzer. Jon, who is also the author of Gaza Conflict 2021: Israel, Hamas, and Eleven Days of War, closely followed reporting on the fighting in English, Hebrew, and Arabic.

Ukraine, Turkey, and NATO: U.S. Interests in Europe

The United States has vital economic and national security interests in deterring aggression and maintaining peace and security in Europe. But almost six months ago on February 24, a clearly undeterred Vladimir Putin launched the largest invasion on the European continent since WWII.
As the Ukrainian people continue the fight to defend their country, the war grinds on with no end in sight.
Meanwhile, Putin's disregard for the sovereignty of Russia's neighbors prompted Finland and Sweden to seek admission into NATO — even as NATO member Turkey fluctuates between cooperation and competition with Russia.
How are Russian and Ukrainian forces currently performing on the battlefield? What role has Turkey played in the conflict, and will this impact the future of U.S.-Turkey relations? Are recent changes to NATO's military posture sufficient? How should we view the likely addition of Finland and Sweden to the NATO alliance?
Bradley Bowman — senior director of FDD's Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP), filling in for host Cliff May — poses these and related questions to two experts.
LTG (Ret.) Ben Hodges previously served as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army in Europe and is now the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Amb. Eric S. Edelman previously served as U.S. Ambassador to both Turkey and Finland and at the Pentagon as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. He's now a senior advisor at FDD where he also serves on the Board of Advisors for FDD's CMPP.

The Life and Death of Emir al Zawahiri

Ayman al Zawahiri, emir of Al Qaeda, is no more. He was reportedly on the balcony of what he thought was a “safe house” in one of Kabul’s more upscale neighborhoods when two missiles fired by the CIA from a Hellfire drone ended his life — almost 21 years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and almost one year after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and capitulation to the Taliban.
To discuss Zawahiri's career and killing and what's next for Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Afghanistan, and the global jihad, Foreign Podicy host Cliff May is joined by FDD senior fellow and editor of FDD’s Long War Journal Bill Roggio and senior director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP) Bradley Bowman.
 

Joe Biden in the Jewish State and the Saudi Kingdom

A couple of weeks ago, Joe Biden went to Israel and Saudi Arabia. This was not a summer vacation. The president had goals. Did he achieve any? Did he set any back?
Foreign Podicy host Clifford D. May poses these and other questions to Michael Singh and Hussain Abdul-Hussain.
Michael Singh
Michael is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute. From 2005 to 2008, he was senior director for Middle East affairs at the White House National Security Council.
He’s also served as special assistant to secretaries of state Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell and at the U.S. embassy in Israel.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Hussain is a research fellow at FDD. Formerly a managing editor of Beirut’s Daily Star, he has reported from war zones in Lebanon and Iraq. He headed the Washington Bureau of the Kuwaiti daily Alrai.
He’s been a Visiting Fellow with London’s Chatham House, and he’s published in numerous Arabic and English language publications, including in The New York Times and The Washington Post.

The Battles of Britain

Great Britain is in the midst of a leadership crisis.
The decline and fall of the always-entertaining Boris Johnson has led to a stormy contest among Conservative Party politicians to replace him, and the Labour Party now has a chance to replace the Conservatives.
It’s complicated as are the consequences of Brexit, the separate Brexit of Harry and Meghan and their transformation into the Duke and Duchess of Hollywood.
To help make sense of it all, host Cliff May is joined by Nile Gardiner.
Nile Gardiner
Nile is director of the Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom.
Earlier in his career, he was Foreign Policy Researcher for former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, advising her on international policy and assisting with her book, Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World.
Nile is extraordinarily well-educated. He received a doctorate in history from Yale University. He also has two master's degrees from Yale, and a master’s degree and bachelor’s degree in modern history from Oxford University. He has lived in Europe, Africa, Asia, and North America.

The Lands in Between

In addition to following Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, host Cliff May has also been trying to understand what’s going on in "the lands between" – the lands between Russia and Western Europe; lands that Vladimir Putin would like also to include in his empire or, failing that, in his sphere of influence.
And this just in: The Islamic Republic of Iran, just south of what were the borders of the Soviet empire, is assisting Putin in his aggression. Curious, no?
To discuss these and related issues, Cliff is joined by Dr. Ivana Stradner, who serves as an advisor to FDD’s Barish Center for Media Integrity, and by Dr. Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fellow at FDD and an expert at FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP).

The Midway Measures Trap

Decades ago, Richard Bernstein opened Time magazine’s first bureau in Beijing. He was later New York Times bureau chief at the UN, in Paris, and in Berlin.
He spent a few years as the Times’ National Cultural Correspondent and as a Times book critic. He’s also the author of a list of incisive books including on China and France.
He recently wrote a provocative op-ed for the Wall Street Journal. It’s about what he calls the “Midway Measures Trap.” That’s when the U.S. is caught between two contradictory imperatives: to respond to a threat, but also to limit the response so as to contain costs and limit risks. The result is often mission failure – and that has consequences.
He joins host Cliff May to discuss not going the distance, not sticking to our guns, being in for a penny but not a pound, and other related topics.

Turkey and America: Can This Marriage Be Saved?

Not so long ago, Turkey was widely regarded as the bridge between the Occident and the Orient, between Christian Europe and the Muslim Middle East. Turkey separated mosque and state. Turkey was a NATO member. Turkey was economically dynamic despite not having oil. Turkey seemed to be democratizing.
That’s not how many of us see Turkey today under the increasingly authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Michael Doran is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and director of its Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. He’s served as a senior director on the National Security Council, a senior advisor in the State Department, and a deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Pentagon. He has a doctorate from Princeton, and he’s the author of “Ike’s Gamble,” a thoughtful re-examination of the Suez Crisis of 1956.
FDD Senior Fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Middle Eastern specialist at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, was, for some years, based in Turkey.
Reuel and Foreign Podicy host Cliff May agree with Dr. Doran on most issues — but not on Erdogan. They discuss the root of their disagreement in this episode.

Nonproliferation, Biodefense, and National Security

Jackie Wolcott previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in Vienna and as U.S. representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Anthony Ruggiero is the former White House National Security Council Senior Director for Counterproliferation and Biodefense.
Together, they are behind the wheel of FDD’s newly launched Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program — serving as Chair and Senior Director, respectively — where they’ll lead the Program’s efforts to prevent America’s adversaries from possessing and developing weapons of mass destruction (perhaps chief among the most pressing national security issues that we face).
Both join FDD Senior Advisor and former White House National Security Council Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction Richard Goldberg — filling in for host Cliff May — to discuss the Program’s timely objectives and the very hard work they’re going to tackle.

NATO and Its Discontents

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, better known by its acronym, NATO, was founded in 1949 to contain Soviet expansionism.
President Truman told a joint session of Congress: “It must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.” This was the essence of the Truman Doctrine. Adopted on a bipartisan basis – with Sen. Arthur Vandenberg playing the most significant role on the Republican side – it encapsulated core American values and interests.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of its empire raised a question:
Was NATO’s mission accomplished?
President Trump at one point called the defensive alliance “obsolete.” He later walked back that description – though he was adamant that all members should be pulling the wagon, not riding on it (hard to argue with him on that point).
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s ruler, has long wanted to divide and, if possible, destroy NATO. But the brutal, imperialist war he’s launched against neighboring Ukraine has instead revived NATO – at least, so far.
This raises lots of questions.
Foreign Podicy host Clifford D. May poses these and additional questions to Frederick Kagan, Senior Fellow and Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Fred was one of the architects of the successful “surge” strategy in Iraq – whose significance FDD understood and energetically supported – and he’s a former professor of military history at West Point. His books include Lessons for a Long War and End of the Old Order: Napoleon and Europe, 1801 – 1805.
Also on hand to both ask and answer questions: Bradley Bowman, a West Point graduate who served for more than 15 years on active duty as a U.S. Army officer, helicopter pilot, staff officer in Afghanistan, assistant professor at West Point, and top defense advisor in the U.S. Senate. He’s now Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP).

Deal or No Deal: Confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran the Reagan Way

FDD experts have worked for more than a decade on the threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As part of a multi-pronged strategy, FDD has shared nonpartisan research and analyses with policymakers, lawmakers, and the business community.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is slated to hold its first public hearing on the theocratic regime in more than two years with administration officials and top experts, and they have invited FDD’s Mark Dubowitz – who founded our Iran program – to testify as an expert witness.
He joins Foreign Podicy host Cliff May — along with FDD’s Rich Goldberg, who recently served on the National Security Council as the Director for Countering Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction; and FDD’s Toby Dershowitz who has played a significant role in shaping and messaging policies to counter the threats from Tehran — to discuss the impending Iran nuclear deal.

Why They Fight

Russia's war in Ukraine underscores, among other things, the urgency of boosting Taiwan's military readiness. Meanwhile, many Americans remain bitterly divided on what role of the U.S. should be in the world, and, therefore, on how strong America's military power ought to be.
To discuss these and other pressing issues facing the U.S. and broader free world, Foreign Podicy host Cliff May is joined by experts from FDD's Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP) — LTG (Ret.) H.R. McMaster and Bradley Bowman.
LTG (Ret.) H.R. McMaster formerly served as the U.S. National Security Advisor and was a commissioned officer in the United States Army for 34 years before retiring as a Lieutenant General in June 2018. He's a historian, an author, and a pundit. He now serves as the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution — and he also serves as the Chairman of the Board of Advisors at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP).
Bradley Bowman is a West Point Graduate, who served as an active-duty U.S. Army officer, Black Hawk pilot, and top advisor to two U.S. Senators. He is also now with FDD's Center on Military and Political Power where he serves as the Center's Senior Director.

An Israel Briefing

Russia ravages Ukraine. China eyes Taiwan. North Korea prepares a nuclear test. And negotiations for a new — and worse — iteration of President Obama’s deeply-flawed Iran nuclear deal remain on life-support.  
The rules-based, American-led order is hanging in the balance — and although they weren’t granted a seat at the negotiating table, Israel currently faces a unique threat with a build-up of Iranian weapons at almost each of its borders.
Unlike with the Americans at the negotiating table, the theocratic regime in Tehran doesn’t want Israelis to submit — they want Israelis to perish. And also unlike the U.S., Israel takes this existential threat both literally and seriously.  
Inside its borders, meanwhile, there’s been new wave of terrorist attacks in recent weeks as tensions in Jerusalem again approach boiling.
All this as we reach the one-year mark since the Gaza conflict of 2021.
Filling in for host Cliff May, FDD Senior Vice President for Research Jonathan Schanzer (who literally wrote the book on last year’s conflict) is joined by Brigadier General Jacob Nagel — a Senior Fellow at FDD and former acting Israeli National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu (and who also contributed to the Hebrew edition of Jon’s book) — to discuss these and related issues.

Why America Can’t Be Denmark

Can there be anyone not shocked and appalled by Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine – a war intended to extinguish Ukraine as an independent nation; a war in which it appears that war crimes are not just being tolerated by the Kremlin but actively encouraged; a war intended to establish that the only laws that apply in the world today are those of the jungle?
The answer: yes. Such people prefer to call themselves ‘realists’, or ‘restrainers’, or ‘re-trenchers’, or ‘anti-interventionists’ or people who just want to prioritize “nation-building at home!”
Objectively, one might call them isolationists. And they can be found on both the left and the right of the political spectrum.
To discuss, Foreign Podicy host Cliff May is joined by FDD senior fellow Aaron MacLean.
Aaron served as a U.S. Marine for seven years with two tours in Afghanistan. He later taught at the U.S. Naval Academy, where in 2013 he received the Apgar Award for Excellence in Teaching.
Aaron received a B.A. in philosophy and the history of math and science from St. John’s College, Annapolis, and an M.Phil. in medieval Arabic thought from Oxford. He has been a Boren Scholar and a Marshall Scholar.
And he served as senior foreign policy advisor and legislative director to Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas.
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Disinformation Wars

"A well-informed citizenry is the best defense against tyranny." Thomas Jefferson said that or something close to it. But what happens when tyrants misinform us or — worse — disinform us?
To help us understand disinformation and its consequences, Foreign Podicy host Cliff May is joined by three FDD scholars: RADM (Ret) Mark Montgomery, Senior Director of FDD's Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI); Emanuele Ottolenghi, FDD Senior Fellow; and Ivana Stradner, Advisor to FDD's Barish Center for Media Integrity.

“Pivoting” and Other Foreign Policy Delusions

There’s a dangerous — even reckless — new Iran nuclear accord that appears to be nearing the finish line in Vienna. Meanwhile, the Biden White House is struggling to wield the right set of policy tools to bring Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine to end. The White House wants to put both of these challenges in the rear view so that it can pivot to, and focus on, a looming great power competition with China. But is America exhibiting the attributes of a great power? Shouldn’t a superpower be able to deftly address multiple threats simultaneously?
Today, guest host Jonathan Schanzer (FDD’s Senior Vice President for Research) is joined by FDD Senior Fellow and former CIA operative, Reuel Marc Gerecht, as well as Ray Takeyh, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. They’ll discuss two recent articles by Reuel and Ray — one in National Review: “Saving the Ayatollahs: Biden’s Unwise Iran Policy,” and the other in the Wall Street Journal: “The Folly of the Pivot to Asia.”

Why MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Is No Longer Reassuring

Central to America's strategy in the Cold War was the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). The idea was to make nuclear warfare a lose-lose proposition — a game you just can't win. Whichever side was attacked would retain the capability to counterattack. Both sides would end up devastated, if not annihilated.
But MAD works only if both sides are equally averse to mass death and destruction.
When it comes to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jong-un, can we be confident of that?
If not, what replaces MAD? Perhaps robust deterrence and comprehensive missile defense systems — neither of which can be achieved easily, cheaply, or quickly. And we've really not yet begun to pursue such goals.
To unpack these issues, Foreign Podicy host Cliff May is joined by Rob Soofer. Formerly the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, Rob is now a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University's Center for Strategic Studies. He also previously served as a professor at the National War College and as a Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Naval Reserve.
Also with us: Bradley Bowman, a West Point Graduate, who served as an active-duty U.S. Army officer, Black Hawk pilot, and top advisor to two U.S. Senators. Brad is now the senior director of FDD's Center on Military and Political Power.

Mike Waltz: Warrior Diplomat and Congressman

Michael G. Waltz served as a Green Beret in the Middle East and Africa, and commanded a Special Forces company in the mountains of Afghanistan.
He served as a counterterrorism advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, and director for Afghanistan policy in the office of the Secretary of Defense.
He is the author of a marvelous 2014 book: Warrior Diplomat: A Green Beret’s Battles from Washington to Afghanistan, the proceeds of which continue to benefit the Green Beret Foundation.
He was also – we’re proud to say – a non-resident senior fellow at FDD years ago.
He now serves in Congress, where he’s a member of the House Armed Services Committee. He continues to serve in the National Guard.
He joins Foreign Podicy host Cliff May to talk about a range of critical national security and foreign policy issues.

The Fog of War and Diplomacy

Russia’s brutal war continues, and President Zelensky is asking for more assistance as the people of Ukraine attempt to exercise their right to defend themselves from an imperialist aggressor seeking to end their existence as an independent nation.
The Biden administration’s efforts to revive Barack Obama’s fatally flawed deal with Iran’s rulers — in an even weaker form — may be close to completion.
Once that happens, Iran’s theocrats will be enriched. They will have more to spend on terrorism, missile development, and proxy wars.
Their path to a nuclear weapons capability will be clear — even if they abide by the agreement which, based on past performance, seems highly unlikely.
It’s probable that, as a provision of that agreement, Biden will grant Russia’s demand for substantial opportunities to evade sanctions.
It’s possible that China’s rulers will take over Russia’s role as a caretaker of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium, which should not inspire confidence.
It’s also likely that the three strongest revisionist and revanchist regimes — those ruling China, Russia, and Iran — will begin working even more closely to diminish the power and influence of the United States. One might call them an Axis of Authoritarians or, more pointedly, an Axis of Tyranny.
Foreign Podicy host Cliff May discusses all this and more with FDD Senior Fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former specialist at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, and FDD Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu.